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Discussion Starter #1
at this rate (stock hit $4.41 yesterday, all time low), my guess is by late november. anyone else?
 

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Ford could maybe survive and so could GM. GM has a lot more sources to turn to that are cheaper with the Pontiac G5 and G3, but they don't make up what they sell the most of which is trucks. Ford is a great gamble right now, but not with my money. I say you wouldn't hear anything about the company doing Chapter 11 till December or 1Q 2009. That is mainly because they want to see how oil is going to run the remaining of the year. You could say oil is going to reach $500/barrel, but you aren't sure if it could get there. If Ford would be able to survive this millions and millions of shares are going to be bought at an extremely discounted price.
 

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[quote author=weezerfan84 link=topic=116404.msg2435741#msg2435741 date=1215030383]
If Ford would be able to survive this millions and millions of shares are going to be bought at an extremely discounted price.
[/quote]

Does the 20 million shares of FMC stock the Cpt. Kirk, the Lion of Las Vegas just purchased count towards your calculation?

http://www.pr-inside.com/billionaire-investor-kirk-kerkorian-increases-r654569.htm

IMHO, Ford can survive if, and only if, GM goes CH11. Ford will then be in a position to command market share from disenfranchised "Muricans" looking to buy Murican... And Mullally is a pretty sharp, yet inpolite, guy. their products are making a great leap forward...... now they just have to survive long enough to show people!

(Also remember, ONLY GM NA is going CH11, the worldwide operations wont/cant go CH11)
 

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[quote author=Ryan.Kauz link=topic=116404.msg2435780#msg2435780 date=1215031020]
[quote author=weezerfan84 link=topic=116404.msg2435741#msg2435741 date=1215030383]
If Ford would be able to survive this millions and millions of shares are going to be bought at an extremely discounted price.
[/quote]

Does the 20 million shares of FMC stock the Cpt. Kirk, the Lion of Las Vegas just purchased count towards your calculation?

http://www.pr-inside.com/billionaire-investor-kirk-kerkorian-increases-r654569.htm

IMHO, Ford can survive if, and only if, GM goes CH11. Ford will then be in a position to command market share from disenfranchised "Muricans" looking to buy Murican... And Mullally is a pretty sharp, yet inpolite, guy. their products are making a great leap forward...... now they just have to survive long enough to show people!

(Also remember, ONLY GM NA is going CH11, the worldwide operations wont/cant go CH11)
[/quote]

The shares he are buying aren't helping, because Ford strickly hasn't been doing a good job at selling economy and mid-size sedans. They have the Fusion that is selling well and the Focus, but bread and butter has always been the F150's. Ford and GM have a long ways to go before they will ever be worth any money anytime soon. I don't care if Kerkorian bought 50 million shares, because he has 50 million shares right behind him that are ready to be sold. Too many people have lost money in this deal to want to stick around until the dust settles. The stock market is really choppy and has been for 4 weeks. Oil set new highs today yet my oil and gas stock lost $.30/share. My buddy; however, lost 20% on his coal stock. He was up $360 and now he's only up like $75. Really depressing for him.
 

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Oh yeah, let's not forget Kirk Kerkorian (Ford) and Carl Icahn (Yahoo) are both losing money trying to bail out these companies. Neither one of them are ahead like they once were, so technically they can't save these companies until the companies themselves turn around.
 

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Discussion Starter #7
that, and those 20 mill only represented about 1% of the outstanding shares. so it didn't move the needle AT ALL for the stock. cuz people understood that it was subject to such heavy proration, that it was so oversubscribed that people only had 1-2% of their shares tendered. most of my clients decided it wasn't even worth it to tender. of course i had something to do with that.... but you know.
 

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[quote author=moser3002 link=topic=116404.msg2435822#msg2435822 date=1215031972]
that, and those 20 mill only represented about 1% of the outstanding shares. so it didn't move the needle AT ALL for the stock. cuz people understood that it was subject to such heavy proration, that it was so oversubscribed that people only had 1-2% of their shares tendered. most of my clients decided it wasn't even worth it to tender. of course i had something to do with that.... but you know.
[/quote]

You got clients coming in saying, "Why did I listen to my friend that told me to buy Ford at $7.25 because it's on the rise." That was an accurate statement up to about $8.30 or so and then it lost at 50% of that share value. I bet people loaded up on that stock at $6.00, $6.50, $7.00, $7.50, and most likely $8.25. You should know not to buy a troubling company that is generally on CNBC or any other network 4-5 days a week. That's a dumb move, but some people believe Ford can become a cinderella story overnight and they are . . . .WRONG. . . . .WRONG!
 

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Discussion Starter #9
yeah, you have no idea how many people i see with over concentrated positions in single stocks. it drives me crazy!! i'm like, "listen, you just lost more than HALF of your retirement savings. had you listened to me 3 YEARS AGO, you wouldn't be in this mess." and they just go on doin what they're doin. "it'll come back" they say. whatever. idiots.
 

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You're right Moser about Kerkorian only made up about 1% of the outstanding shares. When you have those many shares outstanding through profit sharing that it takes a miracle for that stock to gain a lot of ground. Like I said earlier even if 50 million shares there would still be 50 million shares going out in the other direction, which generally hurts the share value more than a buy. Even worse when you may have 2 million shares bought in a day, but 8 million shares sold.
 

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[quote author=moser3002 link=topic=116404.msg2435852#msg2435852 date=1215032552]
yeah, you have no idea how many people i see with over concentrated positions in single stocks. it drives me crazy!! i'm like, "listen, you just lost more than HALF of your retirement savings. had you listened to me 3 YEARS AGO, you wouldn't be in this mess." and they just go on doin what they're doin. "it'll come back" they say. whatever. idiots.
[/quote]

I disagree. They can come back, but it depends on what sector you're in. Most tech stocks can regain share value that was lost, but I 100% agree that Ford and GM sharevalue is lost for quite some time. No point keeping your money all in one stock. I only have 4-5 stocks right now, but 2 are in energy, 1 in metal, and 1 in something else.
 

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Discussion Starter #12
well, actually, this was done through a tender offer that bipassed the market maker entirely. so the shares never hit the market and never crossed the tape. it was all handled by the transfer agent behind the scenes. these types of transactions take a couple of weeks to be processed and it ties up ALL of your shares while this is going on, so that's usually the kicker that helps make up the minds of my clients.
 

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[quote author=moser3002 link=topic=116404.msg2435877#msg2435877 date=1215033298]
well, actually, this was done through a tender offer that bipassed the market maker entirely. so the shares never hit the market and never crossed the tape. it was all handled by the transfer agent behind the scenes. these types of transactions take a couple of weeks to be processed and it ties up ALL of your shares while this is going on, so that's usually the kicker that helps make up the minds of my clients.
[/quote]

I have no idea what you're saying. I've heard of tendered shares, but I don't understand the terminology.
 

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Well, doesn't the Ford family still have 40-45% of the voting rights due to their special class of stock? They've run the company into the ground, Kerkorian would have a serious uphill battle should he try to actually influence decisions.
 

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[quote author=fatabbot link=topic=116404.msg2435889#msg2435889 date=1215033622]
Well, doesn't the Ford family still have 40-45% of the voting rights due to their special class of stock? They've run the company into the ground, Kerkorian would have a serious uphill battle should he try to actually influence decisions.
[/quote]

That is correct about Ford family owning 40% of the company.
 

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[quote author=weezerfan84 link=topic=116404.msg2435920#msg2435920 date=1215034532]
[quote author=fatabbot link=topic=116404.msg2435889#msg2435889 date=1215033622]
Well, doesn't the Ford family still have 40-45% of the voting rights due to their special class of stock? They've run the company into the ground, Kerkorian would have a serious uphill battle should he try to actually influence decisions.
[/quote]

That is correct about Ford family owning 40% of the company.
[/quote]

Well, they own less than 40%, but have 40% buying rights due to their class of stock. Pretty lame, they need to be removed.
 

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Difficult to remove a legacy, unless a multi-billionaire comes in and offers them an overinflated share price of $20/share to buy the company, otherwise the Ford family will have their way with the company.
 

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Discussion Starter #18
yeah, they're the majority shareholders. so i never really did understand what his plan was to try to turn things around. what is he looking to accomplish here?

and yeah, i did just realize my last post was kinda technical. sorry bout that. basically, it's a behind the scenes transfer of shares that takes place away from the market. shareholders get a letter with the details of the tender offer and then they call me up and i explain to them what the letter says (heaven forbid they actually read the damn thing). if they choose to tender their shares, i send the instructions to the transfer agent. the tfer agent collects all of the tender instructions and decides on proration if the offer is oversubscribed, as in the F offer. after the cutoff date to accept the offer, all shares are frozen in the account until the tfer agent allocates the cash and takes the shares out of the account. if prorated, whatever shares weren't tendered are returned to the account.

in cases of large blocks like this, the SEC requires it be done through a tender offer to prevent a huge runup or runoff of the stock. cuz 20 mill would probably move the market. so he had to submit a bid and publish the offer. had it been for a larger percentage of the outstanding shares, we would have seen the stock rise to just under the tender price as people would have taken advantage of the arbitrage (different prices on different markets that result in instant gains. buy at one price and INSTANTLY turn around and sell at a higher price). but since it represented such a small number, the stock didn't budge. it actually dropped pretty drastically, but he was already pretty much locked into the tender price. he did have a small window to renegotiate the offer, but that's usually frowned upon
 

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He's already down from the last purchase he made around $5.25/share. Him and Icahn need to save their money and put it in companies that are performing. I think MRVL (Marvell Technologies) is about to have a good run with the new iphone and blackberry bold coming out. They are either the maker or distributor of the bluetooth technology that goes into these two phones.
 

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This is the exact reason why Ford nor GM wanted to get rid of their SUV and truck lines. Courtesy of Foxnews.com
Did Ford Motor Co. (F: 4.36, -0.35, -7.43%), maker of the iconic Ford Explorer sport utility vehicle, just say the SUV is dead?

Not exactly.

But Ford’s lead sales analyst George Pipas did say that the SUV may soon become a niche product at best.

“Our view is that gas prices aren’t likely to go down and, more importantly, consumers have moved on. We believe that the [SUV] segment has merit for certain consumers, but is not likely to rebound at any point,” he said during the company’s June sales announcement.

At any point.

Apparently that’s Ford-speak for “the SUV is dead,” said Charlie Vogelheim, chief auto industry analyst with J.D. Power and Associates.

“The popularity of the SUV is done,” Vogelheim said. “The SUV is more of a four-letter word than the station wagon.”

Prompted by $4 a gallon gasoline, consumers have shunned the SUVs in 2008 in the same way they snubbed New Coke in the 1980s and the Ford Edsel in the 1950s.

Ford said that its pickup and sport utility vehicle division experienced a 41% decline in sales in June compared to a year ago. Meanwhile General Motors (GM: 9.98, -1.77, -15.06%), who successfully armed U.S. soccer moms with the 18-foot long, 10,000-pound Suburban throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, said its truck sales were down nearly 20% from a year ago as well.

The notion that the SUV is dead is a difficult pill to swallow for companies like Ford or GM. Both sold numerous models of SUVs through the 1990s and 2000s. At one point, GM’s Chevrolet brand sold four different SUVs, while Ford sold five.

“Ford saying the ‘SUV is dead’ is maybe a realization that American automakers get it,” said Aaron Bragman, research analyst with Global Insight in Detroit. “They get the idea that there’s a permanent change in consumer sentiment.”

The future of the SUV might be dark, but what the SUV stood for isn’t – that’s a mix of power, space, comfort and convenience. Americans will still need to transport their 2.5 kids and all their stuff to and from events. What would most likely replace the SUV will be what’s now known as a crossover, experts said.

“Americans still like big vehicles,” Bragman said. “But they simply cannot afford rugged vehicles and, honestly, consumers never needed a rugged vehicle.”

Crossovers such as the Dodge Journey the GMC Arcadia are basically an SUV on a diet. They have that similar SUV shape with the higher up “command seating” that many U.S.-based drivers are looking for, but they are built on a car-like chassis.

While the Chevy Suburban comes in at around 18 feet, a crossover like the Ford Taurus X is 16 feet in length.

“The crossover falls somewhere between a van, an SUV and a station wagon,” Vogelheim said. “People are now going to be looking for space-effective vehicles. You still need to move the kids, but you’ll be doing it more efficiently.”

Like the hatchback and station wagon before it, the SUV will continue to exist in one form or another, at least for the near future, industry analysts said. But its role will be much more limited.

Some people will still need to tow a boat or a motorcycle occasionally, experts said, but that number is quickly decreasing.

“There are a lot of people who utilized gasoline for recreation – to take a motorcycle to an event or go boating – but even those people are now cutting back,” Vogelheim said.

Bragman said he sees the SUV going back to its original purpose – a rough riding, heavy-duty vehicle that seated more than a truck.

“It’s going to become a specialized vehicle again like the Suburban or the Jeep was in the 1970s,” he said. “But that type of vehicle isn’t going to sell a million units.”
 
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